2026 → 2126 · EVENT-DRIVEN SPACECRAFT + PROPELLANT + CIVILIZATION MODEL

Build the industry.
Then build the swarm.

V6 adds an event-driven mission-operations layer on top of the century model: named reusable spacecraft, manifests, departures and arrivals, tanker flights, depot inventories, lunar-built hulls, deterministic representative failures and position along active transfers. The macro economy still uses expected-value fleet-equivalents so a browser can span an entire civilization-scale century.

Scenario explorer, not a prediction. Speculative technologies remain gated and labeled.

V6 ARCHITECTURE

A swarm is the output of an industrial civilization.

V6 keeps the civilization, swarm, elevator/tether, R&D, spacecraft and transit models, then adds a representative mission-control layer. It follows named reusable hulls through specific departures, arrivals, tanker flights, failures, repairs and retirement cycles while the aggregate economy continues to represent the enormous fleets required at mature scale.

01Keplerian geometryTarget positions propagate through simplified two-body orbits; a user-prepared orbital/state-vector snapshot can replace the bundled offline data
02Rocket equationSpecific impulse, Δv reserve, dry mass and tank fraction determine whether a cargo design can close
03Electric power curvesHall/electric-class transport is limited by installed power, efficiency and solar flux with heliocentric distance
04Propellant economyEarth launch, lunar ISRU and returned volatile feedstock build a shared propellant reserve
05Depots + refuelingCislunar staging and target-side volatile refueling reduce single-stage mass-ratio burden without pretending Δv disappears
06Named missionsRepresentative reusable hulls receive IDs, manifests, departures, arrivals, cycle counts and event histories
07Mission operationsTankers, cislunar depots, lunar-built spacecraft, en-route failures and active-flight progress form an operations console
08Stellar industryDelivered cargo ultimately feeds factories, collectors, settlements, elevators/tethers and the photonic grid

INTERACTIVE CIVILIZATION MODEL

100-Year Swarm Simulator v6

Bundled orbital snapshot

MISSION CLOCK

2126

Scrub the century to inspect any modeled year.
Delivered swarm power
Active collectors
Industrial factories
Off-world material flow
Deep-space mining fleets
Open mining routes
Cargo in transit
Propellant reserve
Intellect maturity
System reliability
Planetary surplus
Century goal score

Solar-system industrial network

Orbital zones, settlements, resource nodes and logistics links at the selected year.

2126 STATE

Power generation, demand and surplus

Delivered photonic power versus Earth + Moon + Mars modeled demand.

2026 → 2126

Industrial expansion

Collectors and factory nodes

Annual material sources

Earth launch, Moon, asteroid resources and elevator throughput

Technology readiness

R&D-dependent enabling systems

Settlements

Modeled supported population equivalents

Mining + cargo fleet expansion

Fleet-equivalents allocated to extraction and transport

Target cargo arrivals

Material that has completed its return transit and reached industry

Transit pipeline

Dispatched cargo, arrivals and material still between nodes

Propellant economy

Reserve, annual production and flight consumption

Selected-year transfer board

Route state after spacecraft mass-ratio, power, propellant, staging and transit constraints. Kepler propagation is still a simplified two-body model, not a navigation solution.

Model milestones

Derived from this run

Primary constraint

Strongest modeled bottleneck at the selected year

Model note

EVENT-DRIVEN MISSION OPERATIONS

Follow the ships, not just the tonnes.

The century model may imply millions of fleet-equivalents, so V6 keeps a capped representative roster of named hulls. At small scale one record can correspond to one ship; at mature scale a displayed mission can represent a larger cohort. Macro throughput still uses expected-value safety, while the console shows deterministic representative successes, failures and reuse cycles.

Active flight map

Representative vessel positions along selected-year transfers.

2126 OPS

Depot inventory

Modeled split of the shared propellant reserve across operational nodes.

Event log

Departures, arrivals, failures, repairs and retirements in the selected year.

Active mission manifest

Named representative hulls with destination, cargo, cohort scale and transfer progress.

Representative vessel roster

Current hull state, build origin, reuse cycles and next availability.

SPACECRAFT + DEPOT LEDGER

Every tonne needs a ride.

V6 keeps aggregate mining/cargo capacity for macro throughput while the operations console follows a capped representative set of reusable named vessels, tanker flights and mission events.

DEEP-SPACE TARGET LEDGER

Real bodies, spacecraft-constrained routes.

The body names and orbital elements are reference data. V6 uses a bundled offline element snapshot and can import a user-prepared ephemeris/orbital JSON snapshot, then performs simplified two-body propagation. Recoverable reserves, mining economics, spacecraft architecture and trajectory cost remain scenario assumptions—not certified reserves or mission trajectories.

INFRASTRUCTURE LEDGER

Named hubs with real dependencies.

These are project-level scenario assets, not claims that such facilities currently exist. Each hub activates only after its prerequisite thresholds are reached.

RESOURCE LEDGER

Feedstock comes from different resource classes.

V6 counts asteroid feedstock only after scheduled cargo returns arrive; the operations console mirrors representative flights without pretending to enumerate every mature-scale spacecraft. Propellant production can divert part of Earth launch, lunar output and volatile-rich asteroid arrivals away from construction.

INTELLECT COORDINATION LAYER

Allocation changes with the state of the system.

Current resource allocation

Current power allocation

R&D portfolio

DYNAMIC TECHNOLOGY TREE

The path unlocks dependency by dependency.

“Unlocked” means the model’s readiness, year and infrastructure thresholds are met. It does not mean the technology is guaranteed to be feasible in reality.

V6 REFERENCE ROADMAP

Prototype → bootstrap → replicate → expand.

2026–2035

Demonstrate

Autonomous construction, lunar surface power, precision beaming, reusable launch, robotic ISRU and high-reliability orbital servicing.

2036–2050

Bootstrap

Lunar foundries, mass-driver experiments, orbital yards, closed-loop repair and early asteroid prospecting.

2051–2075

Replicate

Distributed factory nodes, NEO prospecting, route-qualified autonomous mining fleets, reusable cargo tugs, propellant depots, mission-control automation, tanker flights, cislunar tether options and mature photonic links.

2076–2100

Move inward

Thermally capable collectors occupy closer solar orbits while main-belt depots, high-Isp cargo transport, refueling and traffic management scale.

2101–2126

Integrate

Planetary relays, industrial settlements, mature multi-target resource routing, persistent event-driven cargo operations, reserve power for planetary-engineering research, and a swarm-scale grid.

RESEARCH ANCHORS · CHECKED 2026

Anchor the speculative model in real enabling work.

These sources support the orbital-data interface and enabling technology used by the model. V6 deliberately does not embed JPL SSD API calls directly in the site; JPL documentation notes API fair-use/CORS constraints, so the simulator uses bundled data plus explicit file import. They do not imply that industrial asteroid mining, a Dyson swarm, or an Earth space elevator is currently buildable.

NASA/JPL — Horizons APICurrent JPL programmatic ephemeris interface. V6 supports importing a prepared orbital/state-vector snapshot rather than embedding the API in the browser. NASA/JPL SSD — API documentation & fair useNotes one-request-at-a-time service expectations and that SSD APIs should not be embedded directly in websites under NASA CORS policy. NASA/JPL — Small-Body Database APIMachine-readable small-body orbital data and the basis for the bundled/importable orbital-element schema. NASA/JPL SSD — Orbital elements FAQExplains that osculating elements can be used for two-body propagation but grow less accurate away from their epoch; V6 labels that limitation explicitly. NASA — Solar Electric PropulsionReference for high-Isp Hall-effect electric propulsion and long-duration powered transport. NASA Science — Psyche SpacecraftReal Hall-thruster reference: solar power falls substantially in the main belt, and thrust is low despite high propellant efficiency. NASA — Space-Based Solar PowerIdentifies autonomous operations, efficient wireless power beaming, launch economics, and in-space assembly/maintenance as major capability gaps. NASA TechPort — High Efficiency Laser Power Beaming ReceiversReports that diffraction and low end-to-end efficiency remain central laser power-beaming challenges. NASA — In-Situ Resource UtilizationNASA is developing ways to obtain water, oxygen, propellants and construction materials from the Moon, Mars and asteroids. NASA TechPort — ISRU-Based Power on the MoonActive work is maturing autonomous processing of lunar regolith into silicon solar cells, aluminum conductors, oxygen and other products. NASA TechPort — TYMPODevelops tethered lunar power and communications over long distances; it is adjacent tether technology, not a lunar space elevator. NASA NTRS — Space Elevator Technology ConceptsHistoric NASA study work highlights ultra-high-strength tether materials and demonstrations as critical Earth-elevator challenges. NASA Science — Bennu FactsReference for the carbon-rich near-Earth target used in the v4 logistics ledger. NASA Science — 433 ErosReference for the S-type near-Earth asteroid and its history as the first asteroid orbited and landed on by a spacecraft. NASA Science — 4 VestaReference for the differentiated main-belt target used in the v4 mineral-route model. NASA Science — Ceres FactsReference for the water-rich dwarf planet / main-belt resource target. NASA Science — 16 PsycheReference for the metal-rich main-belt target; NASA notes current estimates of roughly 30–60% metal by volume.