2026 → 2126 · SPACECRAFT + PROPELLANT + CIVILIZATION MODEL

Build the industry.
Then build the swarm.

V5 makes the logistics network carry real state: spacecraft dry mass, propellant, specific impulse, electric-thruster power, staging depots, Keplerian target geometry, dispatch queues and cargo actually arriving years after it leaves a mining site now feed the self-expanding civilization model.

Run v5Inspect dependencies
Scenario explorer, not a prediction. Speculative technologies remain gated and labeled.

V5 ARCHITECTURE

A swarm is the output of an industrial civilization.

V5 keeps the civilization, swarm, elevator/tether, R&D and reliability model, then adds a spacecraft layer between mines and industry. Cargo no longer appears instantly: it must fit a mass-ratio budget, consume propellant, survive a transfer, and arrive through a transit queue.

01Keplerian geometryTarget positions propagate through simplified two-body orbits; optional JPL SBDB refresh can replace the bundled element snapshot
02Rocket equationSpecific impulse, Δv reserve, dry mass and tank fraction determine whether a cargo design can close
03Electric power curvesHall/electric-class transport is limited by installed power, efficiency and solar flux with heliocentric distance
04Propellant economyEarth launch, lunar ISRU and returned volatile feedstock build a shared propellant reserve
05Depots + refuelingCislunar staging and target-side volatile refueling reduce single-stage mass-ratio burden without pretending Δv disappears
06Ships in transitMining output is dispatched, queued for return flight and becomes industrial feedstock only when it arrives
07Intellect logisticsMining units, cargo ships, routes, propellant and resource priorities are dynamically allocated by mission doctrine
08Stellar industryDelivered cargo ultimately feeds factories, collectors, settlements, elevators/tethers and the photonic grid

INTERACTIVE CIVILIZATION MODEL

100-Year Swarm Simulator v5

Bundled orbital snapshot

MISSION CLOCK

2126

Scrub the century to inspect any modeled year.
Delivered swarm power——
Active collectors——
Industrial factories——
Off-world material flow——
Deep-space mining fleets——
Open mining routes——
Cargo in transit——
Propellant reserve——
Intellect maturity——
System reliability——
Planetary surplus——
Century goal score——

Solar-system industrial network

Orbital zones, settlements, resource nodes and logistics links at the selected year.

2126 STATE

Power generation, demand and surplus

Delivered photonic power versus Earth + Moon + Mars modeled demand.

2026 → 2126

Industrial expansion

Collectors and factory nodes

Annual material sources

Earth launch, Moon, asteroid resources and elevator throughput

Technology readiness

R&D-dependent enabling systems

Settlements

Modeled supported population equivalents

Mining + cargo fleet expansion

Fleet-equivalents allocated to extraction and transport

Target cargo arrivals

Material that has completed its return transit and reached industry

Transit pipeline

Dispatched cargo, arrivals and material still between nodes

Propellant economy

Reserve, annual production and flight consumption

Selected-year transfer board

Route state after spacecraft mass-ratio, power, propellant, staging and transit constraints. Kepler propagation is still a simplified two-body model, not a navigation solution.

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Model milestones

Derived from this run

Primary constraint

Strongest modeled bottleneck at the selected year

Model note

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SPACECRAFT + DEPOT LEDGER

Every tonne needs a ride.

V5 separates mining units from cargo ships and tracks propellant reserve, staging readiness, mass-ratio feasibility and cargo still in flight. Fleet-equivalents remain aggregate capacity units rather than literal identical vehicles.

DEEP-SPACE TARGET LEDGER

Real bodies, spacecraft-constrained routes.

The body names and orbital elements are reference data. V5 can optionally refresh elements from JPL SBDB, then performs simplified two-body propagation. Recoverable reserves, mining economics, spacecraft architecture and trajectory cost remain scenario assumptions—not certified reserves or mission trajectories.

INFRASTRUCTURE LEDGER

Named hubs with real dependencies.

These are project-level scenario assets, not claims that such facilities currently exist. Each hub activates only after its prerequisite thresholds are reached.

RESOURCE LEDGER

Feedstock comes from different resource classes.

V5 counts asteroid feedstock only after scheduled cargo returns arrive. Propellant production can divert part of Earth launch, lunar output and volatile-rich asteroid arrivals away from construction.

INTELLECT COORDINATION LAYER

Allocation changes with the state of the system.

Current resource allocation

Current power allocation

R&D portfolio

DYNAMIC TECHNOLOGY TREE

The path unlocks dependency by dependency.

“Unlocked” means the model’s readiness, year and infrastructure thresholds are met. It does not mean the technology is guaranteed to be feasible in reality.

V5 REFERENCE ROADMAP

Prototype → bootstrap → replicate → expand.

2026–2035

Demonstrate

Autonomous construction, lunar surface power, precision beaming, reusable launch, robotic ISRU and high-reliability orbital servicing.

2036–2050

Bootstrap

Lunar foundries, mass-driver experiments, orbital yards, closed-loop repair and early asteroid prospecting.

2051–2075

Replicate

Distributed factory nodes, NEO prospecting, route-qualified autonomous mining fleets, reusable cargo tugs, propellant depots, cislunar tether options and mature photonic links.

2076–2100

Move inward

Thermally capable collectors occupy closer solar orbits while main-belt depots, high-Isp cargo transport, refueling and traffic management scale.

2101–2126

Integrate

Planetary relays, industrial settlements, mature multi-target resource routing, persistent cargo pipelines, reserve power for planetary-engineering research, and a swarm-scale grid.

RESEARCH ANCHORS · CHECKED 2026

Anchor the speculative model in real enabling work.

These sources support the orbital-data interface and enabling technology used by the model. They do not imply that industrial asteroid mining, a Dyson swarm, or an Earth space elevator is currently buildable.

NASA/JPL — Small-Body Database APIMachine-readable object identification and orbital elements. V5 can attempt a live element refresh and otherwise uses its bundled snapshot. NASA/JPL SSD — Orbital elements FAQExplains that osculating elements can be used for two-body propagation but grow less accurate away from their epoch; V5 labels that limitation explicitly. NASA — Solar Electric PropulsionReference for high-Isp Hall-effect electric propulsion and long-duration powered transport. NASA Science — Psyche SpacecraftReal Hall-thruster reference: solar power falls substantially in the main belt, and thrust is low despite high propellant efficiency. NASA — Space-Based Solar PowerIdentifies autonomous operations, efficient wireless power beaming, launch economics, and in-space assembly/maintenance as major capability gaps. NASA TechPort — High Efficiency Laser Power Beaming ReceiversReports that diffraction and low end-to-end efficiency remain central laser power-beaming challenges. NASA — In-Situ Resource UtilizationNASA is developing ways to obtain water, oxygen, propellants and construction materials from the Moon, Mars and asteroids. NASA TechPort — ISRU-Based Power on the MoonActive work is maturing autonomous processing of lunar regolith into silicon solar cells, aluminum conductors, oxygen and other products. NASA TechPort — TYMPODevelops tethered lunar power and communications over long distances; it is adjacent tether technology, not a lunar space elevator. NASA NTRS — Space Elevator Technology ConceptsHistoric NASA study work highlights ultra-high-strength tether materials and demonstrations as critical Earth-elevator challenges. NASA Science — Bennu FactsReference for the carbon-rich near-Earth target used in the v4 logistics ledger. NASA Science — 433 ErosReference for the S-type near-Earth asteroid and its history as the first asteroid orbited and landed on by a spacecraft. NASA Science — 4 VestaReference for the differentiated main-belt target used in the v4 mineral-route model. NASA Science — Ceres FactsReference for the water-rich dwarf planet / main-belt resource target. NASA Science — 16 PsycheReference for the metal-rich main-belt target; NASA notes current estimates of roughly 30–60% metal by volume.